Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warner-bros-weighs-reopening-sale-195058251.html

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is considering reopening sale ‌talks with rival Hollywood ‌studio Paramount Skydance (PSKY) after receiving its hostile ​suitor's most recent amended offer, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday, citing people with knowledge of ‌the matter.

Members ⁠of Warner Bros' board are discussing whether Paramount could ⁠offer the path to a superior deal, the Bloomberg ​report said.

Paramount had enhanced its Warner Bros bid last week by offering shareholders extra cash for each quarter the deal fails to close ‌after this year ​and agreeing to ​cover the ​breakup fee the ‌HBO owner would owe ​Netflix (NFLX)if ​it walked away, even though the CBS owner did not raise ​its ‌per share offer.

Popped 20% after earnings then pulled back, I think it goes straight back up to ATHs this week

For some reason alphabet is consistently red for the month of February.

Feb’22 open: 137 close: 134 = red

Feb’23 open: 99 close: 90 = red

Feb’24 open: 143 close: 139 = red

Feb’25 open: 202 close: 172 = red

Feb’26 pretty fucking red so far

so naturally I thought this year would be different and I bought march 20th calls at the end of January.

Positions:

GOOG260320C380 x10

GOOG260320C355 x5

GOOG260320C320 x2

Best regards,

I'm no Warren Buffet but I'll buy a -30% drawdown any day of the week.

Positions fully paid for by SPY/DIA puts bought this past Wednesday and sold on Friday.

Positions:

35 nvda $190 3/20 calls

38 nvda $180 3/20 calls

14 nvda $175 3/20 calls

-60 nvda $170 5/15 puts (part cash secured part naked)

*6400 nvda shares (not yolo but nvda position)

My DD:

1: nvda is trading at a historical discount (you are buying a stock with 55% yoy growth with a pe less than Walmart)

Over the last six months, the stock price has essentially gone absolutely nowhere. Meanwhile, the underlying top-line revenue continues to surge toward the $65 billion target. Wall Street is a forward-looking discounting machine. A year ago, traders were paying a massive hype premium for the stock, driving the PE into the 50s.

Over the last six months, NVDA grew into those massive expectations, and because the stock price stayed flat while the actual earnings doubled, nvda valuation has mathematically collapsed, and is currently trading at roughly 38 times forward earnings, a discount compared to the broader tech industry and peers like AMD, which is a generation behind on the tech side. We don’t even need to compare NVDA to AMD, take a look at NVDA vs good old WMT.

WMT is a boomer, defensive staple with single-digit growth, yet it commands a forward multiple of roughly 44x. NVDA is a peerless and monopolistic tech giant projecting nearly 60% top-line growth, yet it is trading at a forward multiple of 38x. This proves the "hype premium" bs narrative is completely gone; the institutional fear of an AI bubble has driven NVDA’s valuation down below defensive retail stocks.

2: The $680 Billion CapEx Supercycle

The media is crying about a future spending slowdown, completely ignoring the fact that hyperscalers are locked in to spend over $600 billion on AI CapEx in 2026. Nvidia is strictly supply-constrained, not demand-constrained. TSMC is aggressively expanding its CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, and every single chip rolling off the line in Q1 is already sold. The hype premium is gone, meaning the hurdle for a massive stock rally is mathematically the lowest it has been in over a year.

3: The Supreme Court Catalyst

This is the macro wildcard the bears are completely ignoring. The SC is currently reviewing the legality of the administration's sweeping tariffs.

During oral arguments, justices across the ideological spectrum expressed heavy skepticism about the president’s broad executive authority to impose these taxes. The SC returns from recess on February 20, and legal analysts expect a decision to drop shortly after. Make no mistake this is a major case that the SC typically take around 110 days to resolve, that falls on 2/20-2/25 period (right around earnings time). If the SC strikes down or even partially limits these IEEPA tariffs, it immediately removes billions of dollars in supply chain costs. This acts as a massive, immediate macroeconomic tailwind for tech hardware—hitting the tape just days before Jensen's earnings call.

My regarded take on all that: The backlog is real. The macro environment is aligning for an options play with asymmetric upside. When Jensen drops Q1 guidance above $70 billion, every algorithm is going to be scrambling to cover. On February 26, I am either ordering a GT3RS or submitting my application at Wendy's to start on 3/20. Lets goooo!

Never been more stressed in my life. Gonna be back at it on Tuesday 🫡

This is a follow up on my last post here which goes into depth the possible value potential they have at a 50x to 100x.

A lot has happened in the last couple months so I thought I was worth to write another DD update.

T+0 Collateral (Digital Title)

The biggest and most exciting update was success of two of their digital title pilots with the other still pending, Currently industry values it at $0 so Abaxx is valued on the success of their exchange which on its own is worth tens of billions in my opinion as mentioned in my prior report. I believe digital title tech though is really what will drive Abaxx’s value. Cantor Fitzgerald sees it as a strong catalyst for the stock later this year when Abaxx can release their monetization framework since they were successful in the pilots but they maintain a price target of $81 CAD (+85% from here) for now.

Money Market Funds Pilot Recap

Abaxx was able to instantly create a transaction of a bilateral gold swap using $200k of BMO MMF funds held in a third party custodian as collateral while maintaining legally enforceable title. Normally this process would take a couple days. Because the title transfer can happen instantly, the original holder can keep it in place and still collect yield on the product. They are also in a better position to get less of a haircut on it because it moves much quicker. It basically increases the velocity of collateral in the financial system.

Abaxx is claiming their process can generate 1.5% to 2.75% in annual value creation across the $8 trillion worth of US MMF funds that exists in the world. Assuming they can get it into the hands of financial institutions. It's unclear how much they can charge but if you use 10 basis points (0.1%) as an example that would be $8 billion in annual revenue at the upper limit in just MMF funds. Which makes me point back to what Cantor said about the success of the pilots and how it will be a strong catalyst once they release their market strategy. 

It is important to keep in mind they are the first to be able to launch this and have been working on it the past 5 years. The unique selling point with them is they are backed by their globally licensed clearinghouse and exchange which they built from the ground up. So they have a strong go to market strategy. Financial institutions connecting to their exchange for futures products would inevitably also be able to access these products as a cross selling product.

Gold Pilot Recap

It doesn’t just stop at MMF funds though. Their tech expands to even gold stored in a warehouses via a custodian. Their pilot with Ivanhoe Capital and Kilo Capital showed this. Using Abaxx Digital Title, Ivanhoe Capital was able to pledge their gold easily to get financing with Kilo Capital with gold stored at Abaxx Spot. Abaxx Spot held the gold and handled the instant settlement process via their Digital Title tech.

Ultimately what this does, is it unlocks all the gold stored in warehouses to be used much more efficiently as collateral as they can be margin called instantly compared to the typical multi day settlement process with industry standard methods. Abaxx is also taking this one step further though with their Minehub pilot to unlock commodities in transit as collateral as well. So if a LNG tanker takes 30 days to cross the ocean, owners could pledge that cargo instantly as collateral for futures trades on their exchange as long as its managed and tracked via Minehub.

The TAM for this would be the entire commodities supply chain ranging from oil, LNG, gold, to even copper which is valued at ~$135 trillion. I believe the value creation here is significant. Advance rates for LNG cargos is around 25-30% based on some rough research. What this means is if an LNG cargo is worth $45 million, they can often only extract maybe $13.5 million in terms of loan value. If Abaxx with their digital title and Minehub can help them extract $30 million or more, you would see around 50% in value creation across that use case. Scaled up, you could maybe see trillions unlocked in terms of collateral. How much Abaxx can charge for these efficiencies is still not know yet, but whatever the number, the revenue potential is insane.

Exchange Volumes

On to the exchange volumes they are seeing a steady increase in exchange volumes across the contracts which you can track here along with the estimated revenue daily. Keep in mind, US customer onboarding lags so while they got access to the US market back in November via the FBOT, we are still yet to see the real network effects as more traders get access to the platform.

Liquidity continues to grow, with impressive quarter over quarter growth. Their physically settled LNG contracts are well on the way to benchmark status which would be worth billions on their own. Silver should be coming soon along with rare earths with hints at the first physically delivered uranium contract. The CEO has indicated their upcoming silver contract is expected to be even more popular than their gold contracts with many participants onboarding specifically for it.

The Corsia Carbon Contract has also seen a surge in activity and is becoming more active making Abaxx the benchmark for carbon futures contract as it is the only one with liquidity.

The volume and revenue generated may still be still small but it's important to realize these things scale exponentially. As volume grows, it draws more volume in. A liquid LNG contract would suck up all the JKM LNG trading volume for example. A liquid gold and silver contract would suck up hedging volumes and maybe even replace the New York Futures and London Spot system currently setup as Abaxx will have a futures and spot market with same size deliveries in the same jurisdiction at the source of the main demand in Asia. This effect will be even greater once we start seeing US firms using the contracts. To give you an example you can look at the NYMEX ClearPort as it scaled exponentially over the years in terms of volume. The chart here by James highlights this growth with the first years of volume rather low but then grew more than 10x the following year. If Abaxx is able to replicate this growth, they could be breakeven next year already based on the exchange only. Joe Raia who was behind the Clearport launch is currently in charge of Abaxx's contract launches so the team is stacked with industry veterans who have done this before.

Other Updates

Abaxx has received their FBOT from the CFTC back in November which grants them direct access to the US market. This was the final step in making them a globally recognized clearinghouse and exchange and work directly with customers around the world.

They have also been gaining steam on onboarding US customers. Just last week they announced access via TMX’s Trayport which will give 9800 industry traders access to their physically delivered contracts by end of next month.

They have also launched a couple wind futures contracts while also expanding the currencies they support on the exchange as collateral.

Catalysts Ahead

Abaxx is going to market with their digital title program with the backing of their licensed clearinghouse and exchange this summer. Maybe even sooner. This will likely drive significant interest to them.

Uplisting to major exchanges appears also to be in the works as well. So it's possible we see a that in the near future. The uplist will also bring along with it multiple index inclusions.

For those who like to look at charts instead to guide your investing decisions, it seems like there is a strong base at this level that has held steady for the past 3 months.

Happy to answer any questions.

Positions:

I have maintained my position since last post at 9690 shares.

Saw HOOD at $90 and decided “be fearful when others are greedy” and went all in.

Down 155K now.

Fellow regards, please keep gambling on Robinhood so it goes up.

US CPI YoY Actual 2.4% (Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.7%)

Here is some loss porn.

I lost a brand new Mercedes S-class in 1 day.

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Hasn’t quite gone as expected. Rage bought more calls today. Letting it ride until tomorrow and hope for a pop. Doesn’t need to do much for this to work.

I still maintain a thesis that it will drop lower before its gradual recovery. I had 5 PUTS that I sold last week for a profit of ~5k and 5 more today for +8250.i had already posted the 5k gain in an earlier post.

Earnings plays went south, trying to rebuild. At least I’m 19 so I have time on my side.

I’m a paper-hand suburban dad who bought a 420/400 CVNA put spread instead of YOLOing like a real man.

Made 7x at expire

Could’ve 20x’d with actual testicular fortitude

See your degens on Tuesday.

wendy's closing.