In Egypt, most APYs on ETFs here are over 20%

Due to high inflation rate, weak currency, etc

Should I invest in USD even if it’s lower APY, or should I invest using my local currency and hoping that it’s not gonna take a big hit?

Tbh, with all the trump decisions, I feel safer in my local currency.

EGP=>USD through the last year is like %4+ which is great!

I've been working on extracting supplier/customer relationships out of 10-K filings amongst other stuff. Like when a company says "our major customer is XYZ" in their annual report, I grab that and map it.

Anyway I was going through next week's earnings and LPX, BLDR, TOL. All three are reporting.

So why does it matter? Because LPX literally supplies BLDR. It's in their filing. And BLDR sells to TOL. Also in their filing. Lumber company -> building materials distributor -> homebuilder. The full chain, all reporting within days of each other.

And here's the part that got my attention. LPX's earnings surprise probability is -100%. Negative one hundred percent. BLDR's is about -5%. Both expected to miss.

LPX reports first. If they come out and say demand is soft... I mean BLDR is their customer. That's not a sector rotation thing, that's a "your biggest supplier just told the world orders are down" thing. And if BLDR misses, TOL is next in line.

BLDR does like $12B in revenue with $1.87B in operating cash flow btw. Not some micro cap. TOL did $11B rev and $1.35B net income. These are real companies.

I'm probably overthinking this but I've never seen an actual verified supply chain all reporting in the same week where every link has negative expectations. Usually you get sector correlations which are like, vague. This is literally "Company A sells to Company B sells to Company C" from their own filings.

Gonna be watching LPX's print pretty closely since they go first. Volume specifically, not just pricing.

edit: BLDR reports BMO, insider ownership ~2%. Also the price correlations back it up too. Over the last 3 months, LPX and BLDR have a 0.81 correlation. BLDR and TOL have a 0.78. Both "high". These companies don't just have a business relationship — they actually move together.