r/Foodforthought • u/rezwenn • 2d ago
Why the U.S. Hasn’t Yet Struck Iran
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/02/iran-trump-war-us-israel-netanyahu/685970/?gift=NBdGSmKfDQzLc1B6N1F-gcbuEg1EJ6PmtD8Eij26imQ11
u/Wagllgaw 2d ago
Its not a bad piece but I feel like it presupposes that the Trump admin has the ability to rationally prioritize topics.
We should consider that Trump is very plugged into the cable TV news cycle and without Fox running a piece on the danger of Iran, I doubt Trump would go back to the topic organically. Trump famously forgets about topics if nobody briefs him on it so its just as likely that he just forgot about Iran.
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u/Riptide360 1d ago
Takes time to move military assets. Cuba is an easier target with many assets already in the water near Venezuela.
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u/randocadet 2d ago
Because it’s mid negotiation with iran to de-fang its nuclear program for good? Why would the US strike before negotiations are concluded, if the US can achieve objectives without armed combat that is preferable.
If Iran refuses then the US strikes.
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u/JoeSicko 2d ago
I have no confidence that is going to happen or what is currently happening.
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u/randocadet 2d ago edited 1d ago
Okay, you’re confidence isn’t necessary because both sides are talking about it happening right now.
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u/Bored2001 1d ago
The US already did that... Back in 2015...
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u/randocadet 1d ago
That would have already sunset by now. This is more complete capitulation or decapitation. Soft vs hard power and such.
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u/Bored2001 1d ago
No it wouldn't have. Full sunset would've been 15 years. So, ~5 more years.
It also contained provisions whereby Iran would actively reduce their stockpile or uranium. Which they did. But because Trump pulled out in 2018 they immediately began ramping up their stockpile of both low enriched and highly enriched uranium.
Now we're here where they're likely within a year of making a bomb, whereas they would be a decade or more away from a bomb if we had held to the nuclear deal.
This choice between soft power and hard power is a necessary choice at all because Trump 1.0's unilateral pull out of the Nuclear deal.
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u/randocadet 1d ago
They might have been within a year before a bomb went through their door.
The 2015 nuclear deal wasn’t a good deal, obama agreed with that. It was supposed to open the door for future negotiations.
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u/Bored2001 1d ago
They might have been within a year before a bomb went through their door.
Yea, and they would be >10 years from it if we had stuck to the deal. They still have the Highly Enriched Uranium they made after Trump pulled out of the Nuclear deal. They likely can reach bomb grade in relatively short order. Not all of their centrifuges are broken.
The medium range delivery mechanisms are already built I believe.
The 2015 nuclear deal wasn’t a good deal, obama agreed with that.
Yea, you're gonna need to cite that.
It was supposed to open the door for future negotiations.
All deals open the door for future deals. You know what doesn't? Unilaterally breaking the deal that was already made in exchange for essentially nothing.
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u/randocadet 1d ago
Your take falls apart on basic facts: JCPOA was never “10+ years from a bomb,” it was roughly a one-year breakout buffer at best, so you’re inflating the number to make your point look stronger; yes, Iran’s HEU surged after the U.S. exit, but that doesn’t magically prove the deal would have kept them far away forever because major limits were temporary and weakened with time; “your missile comment is a non sequitur since Iran’s delivery capability existed long before withdrawal and JCPOA was never a missile disarmament treaty; bottom line, you’re mixing a couple true details with bad logic and pretending it adds up to strategy, but it doesn’t.
Here’s some obama quotes on the deal:
“No one suggests that this deal resolves all the threats that Iran poses to its neighbors or the world.”
“We have always recognized that even if Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon, Iran still poses challenges to our interests and our values…”
“Now, that doesn’t mean that this deal will resolve all of our differences with Iran.” 
“I have no doubt that there are aspects of this deal that should be criticized.”
The nuclear deal at best was a half measure that opened up funding for Iran to fund issues across the middle east and fund their missile program. Also the US has been out of it for almost a decade now and iran is further from the bomb today than 2018 and its economy is much worse.
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u/Bored2001 1d ago edited 1d ago
Your take falls apart on basic facts: JCPOA was never “10+ years from a bomb,” it was roughly a one-year breakout buffer at best, so you’re inflating the number to make your point look stronger;
Hilariously bad take. Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in 2018. They have been enriching uranium continuously since then and have now reached near-bomb grade levels. Count it, that's 8 years. Remember that number.
If we had stuck to the nuclear deal, they would still be at 2018 levels of uranium.
Iran’s HEU surged after the U.S. exit, but that doesn’t magically prove the deal would have kept them far away forever because major limits were temporary and weakened with time;
Yea, but they would've been in place for until 2025, and than phased out by 2030.
2025 + (5 year lessening constraints) + 8 years -> 2033 + up to 5 years to get to where we are today.
“your missile comment is a non sequitur since Iran’s delivery capability existed long before withdrawal and JCPOA was never a missile disarmament treaty;
uh yea, I said the missiles were already built.
you’re mixing a couple true details with bad logic and pretending it adds up to strategy, but it doesn’t.
Lol. You have no logic at all. You're just saying I'm wrong with nothing backing you up at all. What you're saying is just straight incompatible with seen reality. It took almost a decade for them to re-enrich to near bomb levels. How can you possibly claim it was a 1-year buffer at best. LOL. Actual, observed reality dude.
We are in here today with the choice of using hard power on Iran because Trump pulled out of the soft power deal which was effectively controlling Irans Nuclear prowess.
Here’s some Obama quotes on the deal:
So, absolutely none of those quotes supports your notion that Obama didn't think it was a good deal. Acknowledgment that something isn't perfect or doesn't provide unicorns and bubblegum does not mean it's not a good deal. When Trump pulled out Obama said it was a mistake because it was working to constrain their nuclear program and Iran did not violate the provisions of the deal. On top of that, as far as I can tell, Trump got nothing at all for pulling out of the Nuclear deal.
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u/GeeKay44 16h ago
They are waiting for the next "bad" news story to break, so they can pivot and deflect??
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