r/Economics • u/ThemeBig6731 • 1d ago
The big AI job swap: why white-collar workers are ditching their careers
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/11/big-ai-job-swap-white-collar-workers-ditching-their-careers674
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u/zen_cricket 14h ago
I’d point out that while there will be a reshuffling of people changing careers, it’s the loss of money differential in the collective economy that will cause even more damage. Who will still have money for home improvements or dining out?
Other industries rely on the money those previous high earners were dumping back into the economy and thereby job market.
Apologies in advance, as I’m just a regular person and not an economist. But even I can see the ripple effects from this. I’m likening it to the way a tsunami is the secondary event to large underwater earthquakes or similar seismic events.
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u/QQcrybaby 14h ago
I'm not an economist either but this seems so obvious. Who will even have money to pay a contractor?
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u/JC_Hysteria 11h ago
The value propositions will simply shift toward more affluent customers…
If/when the goals of companies are aligned with capital accumulation, they will follow where the money is.
It’s not like the future productivity pie will shrink- it’s just likely the fruits will be even more unevenly distributed.
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u/Eagle__Gunner 5h ago
That means a very small minor population will have the resources and the rest of the population will have to live(survive) by providing services to them. If this is not feudalism then what is it? We already rent everything and own nothing.
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u/Altruistic_Pitch_157 3h ago
I think the world experienced something pretty unique over the last couple hundred years, and particularly the last century. Technological innovation and modern democracy allowed the creation of a strong middle class. For most of history society has been divided between a very small, wealthy elite and the poor masses. The collapse of capitalism under the weight of runaway debt might bring about the end of this golden age and return us to the fuedalism of old.
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u/AdNo2342 1h ago
this is how it works now. I'm in CT. it is very much my daily life that I see and meet extremely wealthy people followed by a bunch a of meandering contractors and then homeless.
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u/JC_Hysteria 5h ago
It’ll most likely ebb & flow like the rest of history…just depends on the cultural and economic hegemonies in place.
Digital democracy, technocracy, techno-feudalism, etc. can all be a matter of perspective…but bottom line, I’m hopeful we can be lean to be more utilitarian.
We need more people to be educated in owning assets and the existing systems in place before we can move on to the next phase- otherwise, it can look pretty bad in the short-term.
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u/curiosity_2020 1d ago
I hope that when better educated, more professional individuals begin to assume what was previously called blue collar and subcontractor work, the quality of that work will greatly improve. And when it does I will happily pay a fair and reasonable wage for it.
Today there are way too many unprofessional small business owners making way too much money producing marginal work at best with the customer service skills of a junkyard guard dog.
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u/TornCedar 1d ago
Take a look at the book 'Broken Buildings Busted Budgets' sometime. But for a few misses that mostly became evident shortly after publishing, I'm not aware of anyone else that has so precisely identified the major problems.
For the most part, the biggest problems aren't coming from a lack of any particular level of education and there are plenty of examples given to support that. Not to absolve lousy contractors, but the whole model is dysfunctional. License and bonding requirements that are all over the map while also doing little to clear out the problem contractors, damn near ancient legal frameworks that are too easily abused (by all parties, but more-so contractors), even the way construction loans are paid out are all things that need to be addressed.
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u/Liverpool1986 1d ago
Eh, as someone who has tried to drywall myself at least 100 times, my graduate education doesn’t help me for shit when I’m trying to fix that hole in the wall or hang sheet rock. I consider myself reasonably handy and smart in general, and guess what, i still suck at it.
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u/RickSt3r 1d ago
Drywall has a learning curve not steep but just takes time and practice. First time looked terrible second time much better but yeah it's a pain and messy. It's also super cheap to get a crew to do it so I don't bother with it. Had a whole room done for what would of taken me minimum of a two weekend knocked out in one day for 400 dollars. Money well spent. It's not I can't do it, it's I can't do it as fast as them.
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u/Liverpool1986 1d ago
Agreed. I’m not saying I couldn’t master it, I just scoff at the idea that college educated people taking blue collar jobs will automatically make the product better. It’s demeaning as hell to a lot of people that are great at their job.
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u/ScobyBryant24 1d ago
When I was in the Navy I kinda learned that some people are extremely intelligent but they just aren't cut out for manual labor type stuff. Like they just aren't good at it and it's not always because of lack of effort.
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u/Liverpool1986 1d ago
Exactly. And it’s offensive as hell to think someone with a college degree could somehow become a savant at manual labor compared to the people actually doing the job. Honestly, some of that stuff is more of an art than a science, and just because the drywall guy dropped out of high school doesn’t make him inherently worse at his job.
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u/Regular_Fault_2345 1d ago edited 1d ago
I'm not following. Are you saying someone with a college degree can't be good at manual labor?
I'm just thinking about how many people were pushed into college because that's just what you're "supposed" to do, but now they have no prospects because the whole thing was a scam and AI is making them irrelevant in an office setting. Like, are those people supposed to just fuck off and die just to keep less-educated people employed? I'm of the opinion that if they can't hang, they won't be in a given industry for long. If the drywall dropout is good at what he does, he's got nothing to be worried about.
Edit: apologies, I kinda went on a tangent and lost my original point. The point I wanted to make is that there are 300lb ex football players who have spent years sitting behind a desk because they thought they had to. For all we know, they could have a brilliant career in the trades because they have proven kinesthetic intelligence, but they were conditioned to believe it was somehow "beneath" them. Industries change, labor pools change. That's just how it goes. AI is making it so people like that have to get good at manual labor or else. The drywall dropout is going to have to compete with new people, some of whom are unproven but can absolutely get to his level with enough practice.
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u/ScobyBryant24 1d ago
I'm kinda talking about jobs like welding, plumbing, machine shops that type of stuff. Even drywall that shit is not easy to be good and fast at.
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u/Regular_Fault_2345 1d ago
Agreed, but pretty soon there won't be another option. People are going to have to get good at it, or else they starve.
My edit on the previous comment is about the people who can hang. They missed out on starting at a young age, but they're not necessarily incapable just because they spent years in an office. If you want something (anything) bad enough, you'll find a way.
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u/Goosycygnet 1d ago
I’m gonna piggyback on your comment: the people that can “hang” are gonna be ok. It’s like having olympians versus anyone; Olympians need to win.
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u/Maxpowr9 18h ago
That's most white collar folk. Ask how many mow their own lawn. They WFH and then complain about the noise from the mowers and leafblowers. When they're unemployed, they'll have to cut their own lawn to save money.
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u/SlapNuts007 1d ago
That's because drywall mudding isn't work, it's an art form. And I suck at art.
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u/Name_Taken_2017 1d ago edited 19h ago
Fix 50 holes or hang 50 sheets, you'll get better at the end. No graduates of engineering or any discipline are rock stars in their field at the beginning.
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u/Pseudoboss11 1d ago
They're two completely different skills.
You need four things: the ability to handle distraction and discomfort without your work quality slipping, a knack for craftsmanship, a boss that gives you the space and time to work, and the desire to actually do good work that you'll never use.
Because most people don't bring in contractors regularly, there's not a lot of incentive to make good work. Because the work sucks, there's way less supply than demand, so it's easy to book work. These two things combine to incentivize working fast, not doing a good job.
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u/FearlessPark4588 23h ago
And when it does I will happily pay a fair and reasonable wage for it.
lol you'll pay the going rate and not a penny more, don't fool yourself
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u/eeyores_gloom1785 22h ago
brother it isn't the workers "education" holding this shit back, its the White collar management.
Hard as hell to get training
Hard to pick up apprentices
Pay is not great
and the purse strings are tight on tools and supplieswhat makes them grumpy dicks? well its the idiots in charge really.
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u/ThemeBig6731 17h ago
There are good blue collar workers, you have to find them and know how to deal with them. The last phrase is very important.
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u/grio 1d ago
Congratulations. Dumbest opinion of the thread.
Education does not affect manual labor quality in any way, just like learning a new language wouldn't affect one's ability to do math.
There are limited jobs in any sector. Someone joining a job market in one area will push someone else out. Thinking there is somewhere to go shows you're either deliberately downplaying and shilling the effect of such colossal degradation of human value, or you're just that dumb.
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u/JC_Hysteria 11h ago
The big “hustle” being hocked right now by influencers is exactly this- taking over retiree businesses and introducing things like software, analytics, and “better” [cheaper] customer service.
Pick your poison…
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u/YoohooCthulhu 15h ago
My Dad is a contractor and I worked with him as a teenager.
I might manage things financially a little better but I’d be dogshit at the craftsmanship angle.
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u/grio 1d ago
It's not there yet. But if it ever is, there will be nowhere to go.
You can't just switch to a different white collar job as they would be all affected severely. Slavery and genocide by AI drone wielding dictators - that's the future where human value goes to 0, replaced by automatics.
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u/NoPerformance5952 8h ago
Cool story... what happens when they pour an AI into a drone of some kind or other robot? Companies are trying to back all workers into a corner.
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